StateFans' Wake Comparison A Little Off Base

StateFansNation posted this comparison of NC State's basketball season to Wake Forest's season. While everything in the comparison is factual, I can't really convince myself that the comparison is a fair one.

For one thing, they use recruiting rankings as part of their reasoning. Recruiting rankings are opinions, and the way that those opinions are reached are sometimes suspect.

Wake's class was 28th, but probably because they had 3 guys, and NCSU had four. Jeff Teague was the 8th-ranked point guard, and James Johnson was the 9th-ranked small forward. Both were four-star players. The third player, Gary Clark, was the 24th ranked shooting guard. NC State's class consisted of JJ Hickson (3rd center), Javier Gonzalez (30th point guard), Tracy Smith (18th power forward) and Johnny Thomas (40th small forward).

If you take the players national rank at their position, Wake's three average a 13.7, and the three that played this year for NCSU average 17. If you add in the fourth player, Johnny Thomas, State's average drops to 22.75.

Teague and Johnson Wake's top 2 scorers, and Teague is the leading rebounder. Hickson is NCSU's leading scorer and rebounder, but the difference is that Teague is not dependent on anyone else getting him the ball. JJ requires help to get the ball, and there hasn't been a lot of that for NCSU this year.

Also, StateFans mentions that Wake had to replace Kyle Visser, while NCSU had to replace Engin Atsur. Obviously, a senior point guard is more important than a senior PF/C. Atsur was responsible for a lot of the positive things that happened to the '06-'07 Wolfpack, while Visser was playing on a young team with a freshman point guard, Ishmael Smith.

I'm pretty sure that Wake Forest had 7 or 8 players during last year's season, as well. While that seems like something simple, remember that NCSU only had 6 that played regularly. And by regularly, I mean a lot. When Teague came in and earned a starting spot, he didn't replace anyone who had any reason to complain. There was no player on Wake's team who thought he was going to the NBA after this year that now had to back into Teague's shadow, and end up a shell of last year's version of himself.

The talent of JJ Hickson, and Sidney Lowe's (right) decision to try to utilize it as much as possible, may very well have led to some chemistry issues. The fact is, in today's college game, the players have to deal with not being guaranteed anything. They have to earn their minutes THIS YEAR, no matter what they did last year. With the current NBA rules, there are players every year in college who would have gone into the NBA. Sometimes, those players go to teams with returning players at their position. Returning players who are simply not NBA players. Should the more talented freshman sit, and yield to the less-talented upper-classman? Or should the upper-classman understand that the team is bigger than he is, and accept his role?

Ask Quentin Thomas. The UNC senior came in to back up Raymond Felton. Felton left, and Bobby Frasor took Thomas' starting spot, relegating him to the backup role, again. Then, Ty Lawson came in, and beat out Frasor, who became the backup, dropping Thomas to 3rd string. When injuries knocked both Lawson and Frasor out of the lineup, Thomas came in and performed. He wasn't sad, and he wasn't out of shape. He was ready to do his job.

StateFans also references the death of Skip Prosser in the comparison. While I'm sure they mean it as something that should have hurt the team, in reality it probably made the team immune to the type of chemisty issues that plagued NC State this season. Wake's players banded together to support Dino Gaudio, and each and every one of them would run through a wall for him. Also, Gaudio probably helped to recruit the players, and they probably still run a system similar to Prosser's.

The fact is, StateFans' comparison could be used as a reason to look forward to improvement next year. Last year's Wake team was 5-11, with a freshman PG learning the ropes. Ishmael Smith has played much better this year, just as NCSU fans should expect Javier Gonzalez to improve going into his sophomore season.

Julius Mays is a combo guard who is playing the point for his high school team, just as Jeff Teague did as a high school player. If Mays has the ability to penetrate a defense, he may be able to contribute very quickly next season. Also, CJ Williams, a G/F, will provide a boost to the team's overall quickness and athleticism. Also, Johnny Thomas will be healed from his injury, which should add another athletic slasher to the mix.

Finally, let's look at the preseason predictions. NCSU was picked third, Wake was picked 11th. I would say that's probably because all the media members knew Sidney Lowe, and did not know Dino Gaudio. If Skip Prosser were the coach, this Wake team would have been picked higher than 11th, I'm sure.

The fact is that last year both teams finished 5-11 in the ACC. Both teams lost a senior to the European leagues. Both teams brought in good recruiting classes. What reasoning was used to predict that they'd finish 8 places apart in the standings? I'd question the predictors, personally, who chose to believe the ACC Tournament performance instead of the performance for the entire season.

I choose to look at this comparison and think that next year could see NC State finish somewhere near .500 in the ACC. That would get them back to respectability, and show some of the doubters that Sid's plan may actually work.