(Still Too Early) ACC Tournament Preview

The 2008 ACC Tournament starts a week from tomorrow. It promises to be interesting, because the league has been relatively balanced this season. There is reason for every team to be cautiously optimistic about their chances.

Of course, the odds favor a Duke-UNC matchup in the finals.

Since there are still a few games left in the season, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the seedings. There will be some interesting twists, and I'm not convinced that finishing higher is absolutely better.

NC State, for example, could still end up with the 10th, 11th, or 12th seed. Normally, you'd think that you would want your team to avoid finishing dead last. I can't say that I want them to be at the absolute bottom, but that could very well be the best spot for them.

Here's why:

The matchups for Thursday are: #5 vs. #12; #6 vs. #11; #7 vs. #10; and #8 vs. #9. Friday's matchups are based on the assumption that the better-seeded team wins: #1 vs. #8/#9; #2 vs. #7/#10; and so on. Consequently, the middle four teams on Thursday get to play each other for the right to square off against Duke and UNC, both of whom would be coming off of a week's rest.

The #5, #6, #11, and #12 are playing to face the "other two" top 4 teams, and no matter which teams end up in those spots, you'd rather play them on Friday than Duke or UNC.

Duke has struggled to win (and lost a couple) when their jumpers aren't falling. On Saturday, they may be a little more tired, and the jumpers may be a little less consistent. Ty Lawson is just coming back from a high ankle sprain, and Quentin Thomas has lost some of the spark he had during Lawson's absence. How will Lawson's ankle hold up for back to back games? If he has soreness, can Thomas step up?

I used NCSU as the example, simply because as a State fan I'm more familiar (and concerned) with their situation. The fact is, UNC and Duke are the elephants in the room, and every team in the ACC would want to avoid playing them for as long as possible in the tournament.

The only real upset of the ACC Tournament would be Duke or North Carolina losing a game, unless the loss came in a championship matchup between those two teams. The other ten teams are all "Jekyll and Hyde." They could all win or lose any game they play, and no one would be really surprised.

The Wolfpack is a prime example. They could show up, play hard, and win a couple of games, or they could lack focus and not even need to unpack in Charlotte. Which Maryland team shows up? The one that beat UNC in the Dean Dome, or the one that lost to American?

Luckily, we get to find out in just a few more days.