Hickson To NBA? Possibly.

North Carolina State C/F JJ Hickson has decided to enter his name into the NBA Draft, head coach Sidney Lowe said on his final radio show of the season. Hickson will not hire an agent, but will show his wares at pre-draft camps and workouts. After determining where he is likely to be drafted, Hickson would then determine whether he stays in the draft or returns to NC State for another season.

Hickson's current draft status is unclear. Collegehoopsnet.com does not have him listed in their two round mock draft at all, but lists him as a potential first round pick. Draftexpress.com has Hickson projected to go 26th overall. Insidehoops.com projects JJ at 27th overall.

The assessment of Hickson's draft potential will be up in the air until the April 27th early entry deadline has passed. Up until that point, there are several players whose decisions about leaving college early for the NBA will affect where Hickson ends up in the draft.

Ultimately, the decision will most likely come down to Hickson's willingness to risk his future.

At the current projected draft positions, he would be going to playoff teams. Those teams are usually not as "needy" when it comes to rookies, so JJ could end up in the NBA Development League for long stretches. Also, rookie contracts are guaranteed for two year, with two more years as team options. If JJ is unable to crack the roster of the team that drafts him in two years, he may not get an immediate chance anywhere else. He'd then be faced with going overseas to try to work his way back to the NBA. Foreign basketball leagues are littered with U.S. players who thought they were more prepared for the NBA than they actually proved to be.

The only real risk in returning to NC State is injury. The work ethic that Hickson displayed as a freshman makes it likely that he would further develop his skills if he spent another year at NCSU. If he could improve his defense, and become better at recognizing double teams in the post on offense, Hickson would stand a good chance of improving his draft position considerably.

There really is no clear-cut right or wrong answer. It is entirely up to JJ. As a State fan, I'd like to see him spend another year in college, but I can't blame him for chasing his dreams, if that's what he ultimately decides to do. I wish him the best of luck, no matter what he decides.

Coach Calls Out Team...No, Not THAT Coach

"It's in front of our guys, what it takes to win," the coach said. "For whatever reason, I haven't brought it out in them. They're not committed to it. I don't think people change a whole lot, and I don't think you've seen the basketball team change at all this year. So it's hard for me to get overly thrilled or excited."

"I think we have some talent issues on the defensive end of the floor, footspeed-wise, that sometimes is not all their fault."

Wow. Strong words. Coach Lowe must have been really upset to lay into his team like that, huh? Not exactly.

The coach I'm referring to is Billy Donovan. I know, I know, Billy Donovan has two national championship rings, so he can call out his team. He's Roy Williams, Sidney Lowe is Matt Doherty.

Whatever.

I'm not writing this to say, "See, it's OK that Sid called out NCSU's players, because Billy did it, too."

Some of the things that Donovan said are what I want to talk about today. He mentions a couple of things that I have said about NC State's team in recent times. After reading this column by Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com, I believe Florida and NC State had similar teams.

Be honest. You read the first quote, and thought that Sid was "blaming the players" again, didn't you? I know you did. But these are not Sid's words, they are Billy Donovan's. He questions his players' internal makeup. He also says that he doesn't think it can be changed. I have said that quite a bit about NC State's team, mostly about the former coach's players.

The system that Herb Sendek used at NCSU catered to "not-so aggressive" players. A lot of perimeter activity, no real work in the paint. No need to get your hands dirty, so to speak. A few passes, a few jumpshots, and some back-door cuts. It is the offense of the underdog. Princeton ran it because it allowed their lesser-skilled players to remain somewhat competitive. Herb Sendek ran it for the same reasons, State fans just don't like to admit it.

NC State had problems in every phase of the game this season. That is without question. As long as I write, on this blog or anywhere else, I will never write a more factual statement than that one. Some of the blame has to go to Sidney Lowe, simply because he was the head coach.

The problem that I have is that everyone talks about all the talent there was at NC State this season, and how the team should have done so much more. I agree that the team under-achieved, but I disagree about the talent level. Each of the returning players has at least one serious flaw in his game. Serious enough that he can't cover up for it.

Gavin Grant: Athletic slasher, senior leader. Not very quick, not very good ball handler, leads more with his mouth than his play.

Courtney Fells: Athletic, shooter, good defender. Lacks focus, lacks consistent effort, streaky shooter, if he doesn't score early he disappears

Brandon Costner: Versatile inside-out threat. "Tweener"...too slow to play the 3, to soft to play the 4, too slow to defend against smaller players, too soft to defend in the paint

Ben McCauley: Big man with good touch around the basket. Finesse player, doesn't seem to thrive on contact, struggles defensively against physical players, doesn't go up strong on offense, tends to avoid contact rather than initiate it and get to the line, doesn't rebound as well as his size would indicate

These were the guys who were called upon to lead. They didn't. Some of them pouted about reduced playing time, as though they earned a spot last year, when there were only six guys capable of playing. Others talked about great things for the team, but didn't really do much to make it happen. They all seemed to take turns zoning out for varying periods of time. Apparently, they spent too much time in the offseason reading about how good they were going to be, and not enough time watching film of how bad they actually were a season ago.

Coach Donovan's remarks about foot-speed also hit home for this NCSU team. For me, it is actually a sign that maybe sometimes the team was trying harder than it looked. Yesterday, in the ACC Tournament, Miami seemed to get every loose ball. Was it lack of effort, or are Miami's players just faster? A fast player will beat a slow player to a loose ball almost every time.

While I would agree with those who say that Coach Lowe has to take some responsibility for this season's failures, I disagree with those who say it's wrong to blame the players. A quick look at things would say that these four were more inspired by unlimited playing time than they were about a chance to win. They sure seemed more "into it" when they were all playing 30-35 minutes a game last year, even though they lost a lot. This year, when they were asked to be part of what most agree should have been a better team, they balked.

Is there any one who thinks, after watching the whole season, that JJ Hickson should have been held back to help keep either Ben McCauley's or Brandon Costner's ego from getting bruised? Better players show up, and the older guys have to make room. Maybe they should have followed the examples set by Quentin Thomas, who watched as first Bobby Frasor, then Ty Lawson started ahead of him as freshman at UNC. Or maybe John Scheyer, who started last year for Duke, but this year is their sixth man, mostly because of Kyle Singler, a freshman.

I don't mean to absolve Coach Lowe of any blame, and I definitely don't think it's fair to Herb Sendek to blame his style or "his players" for the way this season played out. Having said that, the attitudes of these upper-classmen could very well have come from their time under Sendek. Like most freshman under Sendek, McCauley and Fells spent most of their freshman season on the bench. Costner was injured, and redshirted because of the injury. During and after Sidney Lowe's first season as coach, many questioned why McCauley and Fells were not given larger roles the previous season. Maybe now we see why.

In my opinion, Fells would serve the team better in a an old-school Vinnie Johnson-type role. VJ was a member of the Detroit Pistons who was called "Microwave" because of his penchant for entering a game, making a few plays, and going back out. This role would help alleviate Courtney's biggest flaw, which is a lack of focus. McCauley also would be better as a backup, I believe. He's not overly athletic, and played his best this year when he played in short bursts, rather than long stretches. If he and Hickson rotated, it would create headaches for defenses, because they play the same position, but their style of play is dramatically different. However, as with any post player, McCauley's success or failure depends in large part on what happens on the perimeter. Perimeter play is what doomed the Wolfpack.

There is another quote from coach Donovan, that I think also fits this Wolfpack team. It has absolutely nothing to do with coaching, motivation, focus, or determination:

"I don't think we're a quick, athletic team. When we line up and play against the physical, athletic teams, we get exposed."

You tell me which ACC teams don't fit the "physical, athletic" description, besides NC State.

StateFans' Wake Comparison A Little Off Base

StateFansNation posted this comparison of NC State's basketball season to Wake Forest's season. While everything in the comparison is factual, I can't really convince myself that the comparison is a fair one.

For one thing, they use recruiting rankings as part of their reasoning. Recruiting rankings are opinions, and the way that those opinions are reached are sometimes suspect.

Wake's class was 28th, but probably because they had 3 guys, and NCSU had four. Jeff Teague was the 8th-ranked point guard, and James Johnson was the 9th-ranked small forward. Both were four-star players. The third player, Gary Clark, was the 24th ranked shooting guard. NC State's class consisted of JJ Hickson (3rd center), Javier Gonzalez (30th point guard), Tracy Smith (18th power forward) and Johnny Thomas (40th small forward).

If you take the players national rank at their position, Wake's three average a 13.7, and the three that played this year for NCSU average 17. If you add in the fourth player, Johnny Thomas, State's average drops to 22.75.

Teague and Johnson Wake's top 2 scorers, and Teague is the leading rebounder. Hickson is NCSU's leading scorer and rebounder, but the difference is that Teague is not dependent on anyone else getting him the ball. JJ requires help to get the ball, and there hasn't been a lot of that for NCSU this year.

Also, StateFans mentions that Wake had to replace Kyle Visser, while NCSU had to replace Engin Atsur. Obviously, a senior point guard is more important than a senior PF/C. Atsur was responsible for a lot of the positive things that happened to the '06-'07 Wolfpack, while Visser was playing on a young team with a freshman point guard, Ishmael Smith.

I'm pretty sure that Wake Forest had 7 or 8 players during last year's season, as well. While that seems like something simple, remember that NCSU only had 6 that played regularly. And by regularly, I mean a lot. When Teague came in and earned a starting spot, he didn't replace anyone who had any reason to complain. There was no player on Wake's team who thought he was going to the NBA after this year that now had to back into Teague's shadow, and end up a shell of last year's version of himself.

The talent of JJ Hickson, and Sidney Lowe's (right) decision to try to utilize it as much as possible, may very well have led to some chemistry issues. The fact is, in today's college game, the players have to deal with not being guaranteed anything. They have to earn their minutes THIS YEAR, no matter what they did last year. With the current NBA rules, there are players every year in college who would have gone into the NBA. Sometimes, those players go to teams with returning players at their position. Returning players who are simply not NBA players. Should the more talented freshman sit, and yield to the less-talented upper-classman? Or should the upper-classman understand that the team is bigger than he is, and accept his role?

Ask Quentin Thomas. The UNC senior came in to back up Raymond Felton. Felton left, and Bobby Frasor took Thomas' starting spot, relegating him to the backup role, again. Then, Ty Lawson came in, and beat out Frasor, who became the backup, dropping Thomas to 3rd string. When injuries knocked both Lawson and Frasor out of the lineup, Thomas came in and performed. He wasn't sad, and he wasn't out of shape. He was ready to do his job.

StateFans also references the death of Skip Prosser in the comparison. While I'm sure they mean it as something that should have hurt the team, in reality it probably made the team immune to the type of chemisty issues that plagued NC State this season. Wake's players banded together to support Dino Gaudio, and each and every one of them would run through a wall for him. Also, Gaudio probably helped to recruit the players, and they probably still run a system similar to Prosser's.

The fact is, StateFans' comparison could be used as a reason to look forward to improvement next year. Last year's Wake team was 5-11, with a freshman PG learning the ropes. Ishmael Smith has played much better this year, just as NCSU fans should expect Javier Gonzalez to improve going into his sophomore season.

Julius Mays is a combo guard who is playing the point for his high school team, just as Jeff Teague did as a high school player. If Mays has the ability to penetrate a defense, he may be able to contribute very quickly next season. Also, CJ Williams, a G/F, will provide a boost to the team's overall quickness and athleticism. Also, Johnny Thomas will be healed from his injury, which should add another athletic slasher to the mix.

Finally, let's look at the preseason predictions. NCSU was picked third, Wake was picked 11th. I would say that's probably because all the media members knew Sidney Lowe, and did not know Dino Gaudio. If Skip Prosser were the coach, this Wake team would have been picked higher than 11th, I'm sure.

The fact is that last year both teams finished 5-11 in the ACC. Both teams lost a senior to the European leagues. Both teams brought in good recruiting classes. What reasoning was used to predict that they'd finish 8 places apart in the standings? I'd question the predictors, personally, who chose to believe the ACC Tournament performance instead of the performance for the entire season.

I choose to look at this comparison and think that next year could see NC State finish somewhere near .500 in the ACC. That would get them back to respectability, and show some of the doubters that Sid's plan may actually work.