Friday, March 6, 2009

Duke-UNC II: Worth The Hype??

On Sunday, Duke and North Carolina will face off at the Dean E. Smith Center.

As fans of teams that aren't UNC or Duke complain, the sports world will be overcome by the hype and drama that now surrounds this rivalry. Personally, I don't mind it...both teams are generally ranked highly, and the game generally has an impact on the top of the ACC standings. It deserves to be a notable game.

Just how much hype it deserves may be debated, however.

I fully expect UNC to beat Duke on Sunday. I don't think the game will really be in doubt unless Duke has a phenomenal shooting day. I think Tyler Hansbrough could score 40 points, if he decides that's what he wants to do. I just can't see him losing on Senior Day at the Dean Dome.

My question would be how long the hype lasts. Does a game get hyped just because both teams are ranked in the top 10, even if the outcome is a foregone conclusion? If UNC wins, then the Carolina seniors will be 6-2 against Duke. That's only one game worse than their 7-1 record against the NC State Wolfpack, and the State games aren't hyped nearly as much.

As an outsider to this matchup, I can say that I see troubling signs for the Blue Devils. Much like a certain former NC State leader, Coach K has gone to a system that is non-traditional offensively. Their teams rely on their system, and defensive pressure, to win games. The problem with these non-traditional "system" approaches is that there is a ceiling on their success.

As the talent level of the opponent rises, it becomes harder and harder for the system to be effective. The high-pressure (and yes, sometimes illegal) defensive tactics don't work as well against the fast, talented UNC guards. For NCSU back in the day, the backdoor cuts didn't work so well against the faster, more athletic players, and the offense would grind to a halt.

Now, it's obvious that Duke has had much, MUCH more success with their system than "that guy" ever did at NC State. That is simply because Coach K recruits a much, MUCH higher caliber of athlete, which makes the ceiling for his system higher. But, that ceiling is still there.

Another example of that ceiling will be shown Sunday afternoon at 4.

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