No Tyler, But Other Heels "Testing Waters"

Tyler Hansbrough is coming back to UNC for his senior year. That decision was announced a few days ago, and at the same time it was announced that Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson will "test the waters." For those who don't know, that means that they will enter the NBA draft pool, but not hire an agent, thereby maintaining their college eligibility should they decide in the next month or so that they are not happy with their likely draft position.

Neither decision was particularly surprising, in my opinion. Hansbrough was always more likely to come back, and Ellington and Lawson always seemed more curious about "the process." I believe that Lawson is more likely to stay in the draft than Ellington, but I think there is a good chance that both end up back in Chapel Hill. Ellington is unlikely to be a first round draft pick, and Lawson is projected near the bottom of the first round. If Lawson has some impressive workouts, he may be able to move up into the 'teens, and he may decide that position is high enough for him to jump to the league. I don't believe Ellington can work his way into the first round.

And then there is Danny Green. It was announced over the weekend that he, too, would "test the waters." Even though his name wasn't mentioned by Roy Williams during the information-gathering process, there were rumors that he was going to enter his name into the draft. Those rumors have turned out to be truthful. This is a "no-risk" decision for Green, simply because as a junior, he won't have another year to "test the waters". Players are allowed to enter the draft and return to school only once, per NCAA rules. Next season would be Green's last at UNC anyway, so entering the draft without an agent is really a "no harm, no foul" exercise. It is unusual in that Coach Williams seems to have looked into Green's draft prospects, given Green a report, and advised him to stay in school. Green apparently decided that Coach Williams information was inaccurate. Rarely do players go against their coach's recommendation, especially at a high profile program such as UNC.

The most shocking part of this whole scenario to me is that Ellington is projected to be drafted ahead of Green. If I were an NBA GM, I would rather have Green than Ellington. Ellington has a very smooth jumper, but it was inconsistent this past season...as was the rest of his game. Green has a very good jumper, plays decent defense, rebounds, and even blocks a lot of shots for someone who's "only" 6'6".

Time will tell, I suppose. Best of luck to all the Tar Heels. I honestly hope that they all make the right decision, whether that means staying in Chapel Hill or going to the NBA. For much more in-depth analysis of Green's decision (and all other things UNC), check out Tar Heel Fan.