NC State Basketball: Underachievers? Or Over-rated?

NC State's season has been a roller coaster ride. A really fast roller coaster, as a matter of fact, because a lot of the season has been seemingly downhill. A thought occurred to me recently, however, that has changed my perception of this year's team.

Don't get me wrong, I am still disappointed in the season. If the team you're a fan of struggles, the season is always disappointing, even if the struggles were expected.

My theory is this: People expected a lot from this team, largely because of the run they made at the end of the season. These preseason prognosticators overlooked the entire body of work of last year's team, which may not have been wise.

The factors that most people point to as problems for this years team are effort, intensity, and rebounding. The rebounding is a problem, and, in my opinion, will continue to be an issue until Coach Lowe can recruit more rebounders. The players recruited by Herb Sendek simply are not the type of players that will be above-average rebounders. They may not even be average rebounders. Outside of JJ Hickson (recruited by Coach Lowe), most of NCSU's players are "finesse" guys who do not really have the right attitude for rebounding.

I am not convinced that the effort and intensity are new problems. Last year, the team may have gotten a pass, simply because no one will question the effort or intensity of a team that had 5 guys averaging more than 33 minutes a game.

With the exceptions of Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley, every player who was on the team last year is doing basically the same things they did last year. Gavin Grant is still the most frustrating player on the team, because he can go from brilliant to buffoon in an instant. Courtney Fells is still inconsistent, but, to his credit, he has been shooting the ball better this season than last.

McCauley and Costner have been impacted the most by the arrival of JJ Hickson. Costner also suffered an offseason knee injury that caused him to come into preseason practice somewhat out of shape. Costner has struggled with his shot this season, something that also may be attributable to his knee injury/extra weight. Without the consistent jumper, teams don't play him as tightly, which has taken away his ability to drive to the basket. As for McCauley, I feel that he has struggled mostly because the offense has changed this year. The space that he operated in last year is not available this year, partly because of Hickson, and partly because NCSU's guards have not shown an ability to run the pick and roll. McCauley and Engin Atsur were great last year on the pick and roll, and that hasn't happened at all this year.


At this point, I'd say that most people made assumptions about this year's team that have proven false. Among them:
-one of the 3 point guards would be able to step into Atsur's role.
-Costner would build on his ACC Tournament performance, and become a top ACC talent.
-added depth would help with fatigue that cost NCSU games last year.

Farnold Degand's season-ending injury cost the Wolfpack it's most experienced point guard, and thrust Javi Gonzalez into a starting role that he was not yet ready to handle. Whether it's injury, attitude, or some combination of both, Costner has regressed this season. The players whose minutes have shrunk seem to press when they are in the game, trying to squeeze 35 minutes worth of performance into 25, which has led to problems.

Basically, I think this year's NC State team, while disappointing, is not the massive failure it is being made out to be. In a year where no ACC teams other than North Carolina and Duke stood out, the media chose NCSU to finish in the top 3. When that happened, NC State fans, starved for athletic success, pounced on the prediction: "We're back!!"

In reality, the departure of Coach Sendek and the arrival of Coach Lowe signified the beginning of an overhaul that should not have been expected to happen so quickly. Coach Lowe's style is going to be vastly different than that of Coach Sendek. With the arrival of Hickson, Coach Lowe decided to jump into trying to play his preferred inside-out offensive style. Last year, the offense was still very similar to Sendek's, with a few tweaks. This year, the offense is a round hole, and some of the players are square pegs. This transition was going to happen at some point, and Coach Lowe decided that he'd go ahead and get the process started. Nearly everyone thought that everything would come together, but it simply hasn't.

However, rather than taking the "sky is falling" outlook, NC State fans could choose to look at some positive things from this season. Javi Gonzalez has grown immensely since the beginning of the season. He still makes mistakes, but he comes out with more confidence each game. JJ Hickson has gotten much better as a player. He is more able to find open men out of the post, and he makes better decisions with the ball.

Seeing players develop during the season gives me a great deal of confidence in the coaching staff, and makes me believe that good things are on the way for NC State basketball, even if I have to wait a little longer for them than I originally thought.