Post-Marquette Opinions

I attended my first NC State basketball game of the season last night. NC State lost a tough game, when Marquette made a long three with .4 left on the clock. A desperation attempt by Ben McCauley was after time expired (and may have only been a two, as well), so NCSU lost for the second time this season.

Instead of just providing a recap, I decided to take this opportunity to express my thoughts on the "State of the Program" at NC State. My boss on this blog told me he thought it would be a good thing to write...oddly enough, I agreed to the assignment.

Good Hands

The team is in good hands. I honestly believe that Sidney Lowe is the coach who can lead NC State back to the national scene. His recruiting efforts are paying off, and that is THE #1 way to improve a team: Add Talent. Coach Lowe did not step into an ideal situation. He had to learn the college game (which is probably still a work-in-progress), while at the same time trying to re-shape a roster. That is not an "overnight" job. In time, I believe that Sidney Lowe can get the job done.

I Believe Costner

I have read that Brandon Costner blamed his performance last year on the knee injury he suffered during the summer of 2007. I believe him. Costner is not a thin guy, so I wouldn't be surprised to learn that he really has to work to keep his weight down. A knee injury, coupled with the disappointment of not making the Pan-Am team, could have easily led to Costner having extra weight. During the season, it's difficult to lose weight while still maintain energy and "legs" for games and practices...especially if you're still bothered somewhat by a knee injury. He is thinner this year, and playing much better...but is "attitude" doesn't really look that much different. He is not a "rah rah" guy...he just plays. When his jumper is falling, he gets a little cocky, and that's about it. Last year, the jumper wasn't working, so the only attitude we saw consistently was the quiet guy, and people took that to mean an attitude problem. I no longer agree with that assessment. (There are the vicious Gavin Grant rumors, which I'm not getting into here....I'll just say that if THAT story is factual, I wouldn't blame Costner for having a little bit of a bad attitude)

Is There An "I" In McCauley?

I am starting to believe that there just may be an "I" somewhere in there. Last season, he was asked to sacrifice for the team. A future NBA player, JJ Hickson, joined the team, and he just happened to play Ben's position. This addition should have been a cue for Ben to adjust his role "for the good of the team", and move into a support/backup position. Instead, he pouted...a lot. I didn't understand just how much it bothered Ben to have to sit behind JJ last season until this year. I don't believe he's done an interview yet that didn't contain the phrase "The best thing about last year is that it's over". The more I hear it, the more I take it as code for "I'm back in my spot now, so the team will be OK." The problem with that logic is that Ben is not quite as good as Ben thinks he is. Last night's game is a prime example. Ben missed two late free throws that could have given NC State the lead. NC State stopped Marquette, then ran a play for Ben. Instead of kicking the ball out, he tried to score through a double team, and never came close to getting a shot away. Marquette makes a three, drive safely everyone. The correct play was to get the ball to someone who was open. The selfish play was to try to a) make amends for missing the free throws by forcing a shot or b) force a shot to try to be the hero.

I hope that Ben proves me wrong over the course of this season. If he doesn't, however, I hope that Tracy Smith starts to get some of his minutes. Smith is a solid contributor. Nothing fancy....just a smart, blue-collar type player, which is a good thing to have in a post player.

ACC Outlook

I think this team may have a chance to finish around .500 in ACC play. I don't believe that it's insane to think that they could sneak into the NCAA tournament. I am not predicting that they will, but they could. They have played down-to-the-wire games against two ranked opponents, so they should play competitive games against most ACC foes. As much as it hurts to say it, the only team that I would predict blowout losses against is UNC. Of course, I'm basically convinced that UNC is going to blow everyone out this season, so that is more about UNC's talent than it is NCSU's talent.

The Wolfpack is rebounding and shooting pretty well. Their defense has been OK, but some of the guards do not have the foot speed to keep up with faster opponents (which could be a problem in ACC play). The team has to eliminate careless turnovers. Last night, there were at least five turnovers that simply shouldn't have happened. Teams that aren't mega-talented (and NCSU is not mega-talented) absolutely can not afford to give free possessions to their opponents.

The team is good...not great, but good. They will have their "moments" this season, good and bad. So, relax Pack fans. It is OK to be optimistic about the season. The team could easily work its way into the middle of the pack in the ACC, which I would view as a huge step forward. Most likely, many of the 'Pack's games are going to be like last night, and come down to the final possession. Hopefully, a few of those games go the 'Pack's way.

The Rock Star Coach

The University of North Carolina Tar Heels are having a very good season.

Currently, they sit at 7-2, ranked 17th in the country, and are tied for first in the ACC's Coastal Division. Virginia Tech is the only team that can knock UNC out of the ACC Championship Game without the Heels losing a game.

That's the good.

The bad is...this. According to published reports, the University of Tennessee is attempting to lure head coach Butch Davis away from Chapel Hill. Last year, it was Arkansas, Butch's alma mater, that showed interest. That interest cost UNC almost $300,000 a year, and also resulted in promises being made for facililty improvements at Kenan Stadium. All of that followed a 4-8 first season in Chapel Hill.

This year, the team is better, and the (apparent) suitor is much more serious. Rumors are flying about UT potentially offering Nick Saban money ($4 million+) to lure Butch away. If true, UNC may not be able to keep Butch with a few hundred thousand dollars and some extra seats.

Two years, two rumors. Most likely, two raises. That is the problem with "Rock Star" coaches like Davis. As long as he is at UNC, whether it's for two more months or five years, there will always be a traditional "football" school that thinks they can lure him away. If UNC keeps him, it will get expensive...especially if the idea that "whatever Butch gets, Roy Williams gets" is true.

I wonder if UNC can continue promising Butch improved facilities, while at the same time doing nothing to the Dean Dome. Will ol' Roy start to get miffed? I don't believe that Roy will sit idly by while a football coach makes demand after demand. The one problem is that Roy doesn't really have any leverage. Everyone knows that Roy is at his dream job, which also happens to be THE big dog in college basketball. In order for Roy to get rumors started, he'd have to flirt with an NBA team (like Coach K a few years ago), and I just don't think Roy can convince anyone he'd leave UNC for the NBA.

Butch Davis' leaving UNC wouldn't surprise anyone.

Contrary to popular belief, most State fans I know don't think Davis is leaving. They also don't care one way or the other. It's just funny to see the "dance" start every season. UNC signed Davis to a larger contract than any football coach at the school had ever had...and if Butch is still the coach on New Year's Day, they will likely have given him raises after each of his first two years.

Can UNC afford to pay Butch $4 million a season? Should UNC add the 6 or 7 thousand seats (at a cost of $$millions) to Kenan Stadium it will take to make him happy? If Butch gets a big raise at the end of the year, how much will the assistants' pay go up? Will Butch actually agree NOT to let his agent float his name out next season? Will this process start all over again in a few weeks if Charlie Weis gets fired at Notre Dame?

Stay tuned...the show is just beginning.

This Weekend In The ACC

This week, there are three conference matchups in the Atlantic Coast Conference, along with five nonconference games. In the conference games, North Carolina travels to Miami, Duke hosts Virginia, and Maryland takes on Clemson in Death Valley.

In the nonconference matchups, NC State hosts South Florida, Virginia Tech goes to Nebraska, Wake Forest welcomes Navy, Rhode Island travels to Boston College, and Florida State plays Colorado in Jacksonville, FL.

NORTH CAROLINA AT MIAMI

I would choose the Tar Heels to win this game if TJ Yates was healthy. Most likely, the Heels would be coming off of a win against Virginia Tech, rather than a loss, if Yates had not suffered his broken foot. But, after seeing what Mike Paulus did last week, and remembering the "Cam Sexton experiment" from a couple of years ago, I can't pick the Heels. UNC will have to be effective in the running game to help out whoever plays at quarterback, and they have not been able to run the ball well up until now. I expect the Hurricanes to win.

VIRGINIA AT DUKE

Duke is favored by a touchdown in this game. Duke wins.

Hey, I'm a State fan...I'm not going to get too deep into a Duke/Virginia battle. It doesn't really matter. Virginia was horrible before they kicked their best QB (Peter Lalich) out of school...now they are worse. Duke is still less talented than most ACC teams, but they are well-coached now, and coaching makes a lot of difference.

MARYLAND AT CLEMSON

Maryland has looked better than expected the last couple of weeks. However, I'm not sure they are ready to go into Death Valley and beat the Tigers. I want the Terps to win, but I just don't think it's likely. A Maryland win would help NC State, since NCSU has already lost to Clemson. In order for State to finish ahead of Clemson in the standings, NCSU would have to finish the conference season a game ahead of Clemson. Technically, the Wolfpack can still have a tiebreaker advantage over the other teams in their division. Go Terps!

NONCONFERENCE GAMES NOT INVOLVING NC STATE

I really believe that all of the ACC teams will win their matchups this weekend. Wake Forest and Boston College should win handily. Virginia Tech could struggle with Nebraska, but I think the Hokies can pull out the victory. With FSU, there's really no way of knowing what will happen. They could win by 20, they could lose by 25. Much like UNC, Florida State's fortunes will depend on the performance at quarterback. I'm picking the 'Noles simply because they are in the ACC, and the conference needs the win.

SOUTH FLORIDA AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE

On paper, this game shouldn't be close. USF is ranked 13th (or 14th, depending on which poll you prefer), and NC State is unranked. NC State is going to be without its best defender, Nate Irving. Starting QB Russell Wilson is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed injury.

There's been a little smack talk between the coaching staffs this week, as well. Coaches from across the country traveled to USF this summer to learn the "secrets" of defending the spread option. The Bulls shut down West Virginia last year, so everyone wanted to learn how. When asked about that, Tom O'Brien reminded everyone about USF's bowl game (a shellacking at the hands of Oregon, which runs the spread option), and said "If they're the gurus, we'll just go somewhere else."

This irked USF defensive coordinator Wally Burnham, so he fired back about how USF's coaches were "classy", then reminded everyone that NCSU didn't go to a bowl last year. You stay classy, Wally.

Anyway, I think the over/under for this game is 1.5. If Harrison Beck, who is scheduled to start in place of Wilson at QB, throws two or more interceptions, State loses. If not, State wins. NC State has played well enough of late to win games if they protect the ball. They have not played well enough to overcome lots of turnovers. Especially interceptions, because when the Wolfpack gives up an interception it often turns into a touchdown for the opposition.

Actually, the "Beck Factor" may not come into play. There is some internet speculation (and we all know how trustworthy that is) that Wilson will in fact play Saturday night. He was listed as "out" on Monday, but on Thursday's report was listed as "doubtful". If his injury is to his throwing shoulder (as reported by WRAL in Raleigh), then it may depend on how it feels when he wakes up Saturday.

Either way, I'm predicting an NC State victory. I foresee a hard-fought game that the Wolfpack finds a way to win in the fourth quarter. NC State goes into their conference schedule with back-to-back wins over Top 15 opponents.

Wow...

I haven't posted anything since August 25. At that time, I was quite excited by the fact the Russell Wilson was taking over as quarterback at NC State. I announced it by saying "Hello Mr. Wilson!" in the post just below this one.

As I write this, NCSU sits at 1-2. They have sandwiched losses to South Carolina (34-0) and Clemson (27-9) around a relatively lackluster victory over William and Mary. The defense has actually looked pretty good, and has been getting the turnovers that defensive coordinator Mike Archer and head coach Tom O'Brien talked about last year and over the summer. The problem has been that the offense has been inefficient.

That's really the nicest thing I can say about the offense.

Some of the ineptitude of the offense I attribute to Russell Wilson getting knocked out (literally) during the South Carolina game. The team had seemingly found a groove, and was moving the ball down the field, when Wilson got his bell rung. Daniel Evans entered, and you could literally hear the air come out of NC State's sails. Before you knew it, a 0-0 defensive struggle was a 34-0 blowout.

After missing the William and Mary game, Wilson played OK against Clemson. He didn't light the world on fire, but he did show an ability to avoid "big negative" plays. He may actually be too quick to throw the ball away. But, he is a redshirt freshman...I expect that as the season progresses he will learn when to challenge defenders and when to throw the ball away. Right now, he's a little timid about throwing the ball to receivers who aren't wide open.

So, going into this week, here's the story: NC State, decimated by injury, is getting ready to host the 15th-ranked team in the country. They are down to the 3rd string TE, have no receivers who made any significant contributions last year, have two converted defensive linemen starting on the offensive line, have lots of freshman and sophomores in the two-deep, and their quarterback is a RS-Fr. who has already been knocked cold this season. Recipe for disaster, right?

WRONG!!

That 15th-ranked team is from Greenville, NC. The East Carolina Pirates.

NC State's "get right" opponent.

Remember last year? 1-5 NC State went to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium and thumped the Pirates.

This year, ECU is riding high. Their fans are talking about going undefeated and making the a BCS bowl. Tickets for the game are selling on the "black market" for ridiculous prices. The Pirates and their fans are hyped and ready to come to Raleigh. They have something in store for the Wolfpack.

Whatever. I do not and will not believe it until I see it.

I think that the ECU team that played Tulane is much closer to the real thing than the team that beat West Virginia. I don't think the Virginia Tech victory means much, because Virginia Tech with Sean Glennon at QB is not much better (if any) than NCSU on offense. I think that Russell Wilson will be much more comfortable this week, and will begin to put things together. The Wolfpack offense doesn't necessarily need to score a ton of points. They just need to string together a few first downs, so that the defense can stay off the field for a while. I think that happens this week.

I don't care who they have beaten. I don't care where they are ranked. They are still East Carolina.

North Carolina State will win the game.

Hello Mr. Wilson!!

Russell Wilson, a redshirt freshman, was named the starting quarterback for North Carolina State's season opening game against the University of South Carolina. The game will be played in Columbia, SC, Thursday night, and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Wilson beat out senior Daniel Evans for the starting spot, but NCSU coach Tom O'Brien said that Evans is likely to play in the game as well. Wilson is thought by most to be a run-first quarterback, but actually played in a very pass-oriented attack in high school.

With the announcement, State fans generally broke into two groups: Optimists and pessimists. State fans generally belong to one of these two groups, as I guess most fanbases do. These two groups can take the same set of quotes, and from them derive totally opposite meanings.

The following quotes are all from Coach O'Brien's press conference where he announced Wilson as the starter.

"It's just a situation where we need what he brings to the table right now."

The optimist thinks that means Wilson has a strong, accurate arm, with athleticism to move the pocket and create opportunities for the team. The pessimist thinks this is O'Brien acknowledging that the offensive line is going to be horrible, and the QB needs to be able to run for his life.

“The decision always came down to who we thought would give us the best opportunity to win a football game. Right now, our offense and the way we are structured it will be Russell Wilson. That was the deciding factor.”

The pessimist thinks...well, basically the same thing as above. That's what the pessimists always think. The optimists (I admit, I am one) think that Wilson brings an exciting new cache of talents to the offense. The playbook can be opened up a little more (maybe even expanded) to take advantage of his skill set.

I like the decision to start Russell Wilson. I think that since most State fans "know" Daniel Evans, the idea that Wilson beat Evans out for the job is a reason for optimism. He was chosen to replace a known commodity, so it is only natural for us to believe that he will significantly upgrade the quarterback position. In reading about Wilson's family and background, I think that he will be mature enough to handle the "bright lights" that accompany being the starting QB for a BCS team, even though he is relatively young.

I expect this year's N.C. State team to be quite a bit better than most preseason media polls suggest. I believe that several young players will be able to step into their new roles and produce solid results, and I believe Russell Wilson will be leading the way.

Go Pack!!

Is Glennon The Answer?

The 2008 North Carolina State football team held their first scrimmage Wednesday night, and as could be expected, the coaches were not exactly thrilled.

Ball control and penalties were problems, but Coach Tom O'Brien seems confident that the players can fix the issues. He pointed out that the team was still early in preseason camp, and stressed that a review of the scrimmage on videotape would tell more of a story about the team's performance than any available statistics.

"Statistics are statistics, and when you play yourself you don't know who's in there doing what," he said.

The most interesting (and important) position battle for the Wolfpack this season is the ongoing struggle to determine who will start at quarterback. In last night's scrimmage, Harrison Beck was the most productive, passing for 111 yards, with 5 completions in 6 attempts. Daniel Evans was 4 of 7 for 40 yards, Russell Wilson was 3 of 6 for 20 yards (with an interception), and Justin Burke was 3 of 6 for 52 yards.

The most interesting stat line of the night, however, belonged to true freshman Mike Glennon. He was 9 of 13 for 101 yards, and he also threw an interception. This is interesting because he threw twice as many passes as any other quarterback. Future scrimmages will determine if this was just a quirk in the playcalling, or if the coaches are giving Glennon a chance to prove himself capable of being the starter on opening night.

No matter who is chosen, the opening night starter will face the tough task of handling a road game in Columbia, SC against the Gamecocks of South Carolina...on ESPN...on Thursday night. Definitely not an easy task for any QB...but it will give the guy who starts the game a chance to cement himself as "the guy" to lead the team this season.

Who will it be? Stay tuned...

Brett Favre To The Jets

The Green Bay Packers have traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets for....oh who cares?

The Jets are still going to be average, at best, and the Packers are still going to have to deal with Aaron Rodgers learning how to play in the shadow of a legend. The Jets are paying an extra six million dollars ($12M for Favre vs. the $6M for soon-to-be-cut Chad Pennington) to be in the news a little more, but they won't be a serious contender in the AFC. The Packers have hitched their wagon to the untested Rodgers, who has arm-strength questions and a lack of in-game experience.
The best part is that the "saga" is over, and hopefully now the "Favre" ticker can go away from the ESPN crawl.

I have to say that it just doesn't seem scary to think of "Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers" coming to play your favorite NFL team. If Rodgers is unable to make "all the throws" as I have heard, that could explain why Ryan Grant held out of camp to get a new contract. If the deep ball is removed from Green Bay's arsenal, then Ryan will not enjoy the success he had a year ago. With Favre at QB, teams had to defend down the field, because he had the arm (and the mentality) to stretch the field. Does Rodgers?

Jerricho Cotchery (NCSU guy) has to be ecstatic today. He is the type of receiver that Favre will love...a guy who will make the tough catches in traffic.

Good luck to everyone involved. They are all going to need it.