Good Grief People

The sky is not falling.

Derrick Favors, Demarcus Cousins, and John Wall (most likely) are not coming to North Carolina State. As each of these players commit elsewhere, more and more State fans act like their decisions are a referendum on head coach Sidney Lowe.

Next year's NC State basketball team is going to be the best that Sidney Lowe has put on the court. It's really that simple.

You can call it "blaming the players", or whatever else you want to call it, but I call it "addition by subtraction". If it's hate, then get Bomani Jones to press the "hate" button. "Hate hate hate hate hatehatehate."

The freshmen who are coming in next season do not have to be all-ACC guys to help the team improve. If they show up and play hard every time out, they are upgrades over the three departing players (I'll leave Trevor Ferguson out of the discussion).

The overall athleticism of the team will be improved. The team will have a couple of guys who are capable of scoring on their own. The team will have a shooter who can handle the ball. The team will have another big guy who, by all accounts, is willing to bang inside and work for the ball.

Javi Gonzalez improved greatly during the course of the past season. There is no reason to think he won't continue to improve. Lorenzo Brown is a scorer, and everyone associated with the program believes he is ready to contribute right away. A scoring shooting guard who can attack the basket and provide ballhandling help will be Javi's best friend.

Gonzalez, Brown, CJ Williams, Dennis Horner, and Tracy Smith are the guys I'd project as the starters for next season. Of course, it's only March 25th, so that is subject to change. Then, off the bench, you'd have Julius Mays, Scott Wood, Richard Howell and Johnny Thomas, depending on the health of his knee. Farnold Degand will be fighting Mays for playing time, but I give the nod to Mays because I think he will excel playing with Wood, his high school teammate. Also, I think that Josh Davis, the newest commitment for '09, will challenge for playing time. He's tall, athletic, and can provide the "energy minutes" that Simon Harris gave the team this past season, but he is probably a better player than Harris.

There is a lot of chatter that the coaching staff is trying hard to add another big man to this year's recruiting class. If so, that would address the one glaring weakness of this team, which is a lack of size.

Many people are questioning the coaching ability of Sidney Lowe. I prefer to examine the "talent" and "leadership" of this year's senior class (which includes Brandon Costner, IMO). I don't believe the provided any real leadership, and I really question their skill level. Costner turned himself into a spot-up shooter, but he shot horribly. McCauley was always referred to as a "throwback", which is code for "can't jump and slow"...he was brought here by the former coach to play the high-post "Evtimov" position, but that isn't a position that exists in Sidney Lowe's NC State offense. McCauley, as a post player, I would not consider better than "OK". Courtney Fells was an enigma. Sometimes, he looked like he was the best player on the floor, other times he looked like he'd never seen a basketball before in his life...often in the same game...sometimes on the same possession.

Simply put, I don't think the freshmen have to be amazing to be better than those three. I can't imagine a time next year where I'm thinking "Wow, if only Brandon Costner was here, that wouldn't have happened."

Next season, look for the 'Pack to finish at .500 or above, and challenge for an NCAA Tournament berth. And, when it happens, remember that you read it here.

Duke-UNC II: Worth The Hype??

On Sunday, Duke and North Carolina will face off at the Dean E. Smith Center.

As fans of teams that aren't UNC or Duke complain, the sports world will be overcome by the hype and drama that now surrounds this rivalry. Personally, I don't mind it...both teams are generally ranked highly, and the game generally has an impact on the top of the ACC standings. It deserves to be a notable game.

Just how much hype it deserves may be debated, however.

I fully expect UNC to beat Duke on Sunday. I don't think the game will really be in doubt unless Duke has a phenomenal shooting day. I think Tyler Hansbrough could score 40 points, if he decides that's what he wants to do. I just can't see him losing on Senior Day at the Dean Dome.

My question would be how long the hype lasts. Does a game get hyped just because both teams are ranked in the top 10, even if the outcome is a foregone conclusion? If UNC wins, then the Carolina seniors will be 6-2 against Duke. That's only one game worse than their 7-1 record against the NC State Wolfpack, and the State games aren't hyped nearly as much.

As an outsider to this matchup, I can say that I see troubling signs for the Blue Devils. Much like a certain former NC State leader, Coach K has gone to a system that is non-traditional offensively. Their teams rely on their system, and defensive pressure, to win games. The problem with these non-traditional "system" approaches is that there is a ceiling on their success.

As the talent level of the opponent rises, it becomes harder and harder for the system to be effective. The high-pressure (and yes, sometimes illegal) defensive tactics don't work as well against the fast, talented UNC guards. For NCSU back in the day, the backdoor cuts didn't work so well against the faster, more athletic players, and the offense would grind to a halt.

Now, it's obvious that Duke has had much, MUCH more success with their system than "that guy" ever did at NC State. That is simply because Coach K recruits a much, MUCH higher caliber of athlete, which makes the ceiling for his system higher. But, that ceiling is still there.

Another example of that ceiling will be shown Sunday afternoon at 4.