This Weekend In The ACC

This week, there are three conference matchups in the Atlantic Coast Conference, along with five nonconference games. In the conference games, North Carolina travels to Miami, Duke hosts Virginia, and Maryland takes on Clemson in Death Valley.

In the nonconference matchups, NC State hosts South Florida, Virginia Tech goes to Nebraska, Wake Forest welcomes Navy, Rhode Island travels to Boston College, and Florida State plays Colorado in Jacksonville, FL.

NORTH CAROLINA AT MIAMI

I would choose the Tar Heels to win this game if TJ Yates was healthy. Most likely, the Heels would be coming off of a win against Virginia Tech, rather than a loss, if Yates had not suffered his broken foot. But, after seeing what Mike Paulus did last week, and remembering the "Cam Sexton experiment" from a couple of years ago, I can't pick the Heels. UNC will have to be effective in the running game to help out whoever plays at quarterback, and they have not been able to run the ball well up until now. I expect the Hurricanes to win.

VIRGINIA AT DUKE

Duke is favored by a touchdown in this game. Duke wins.

Hey, I'm a State fan...I'm not going to get too deep into a Duke/Virginia battle. It doesn't really matter. Virginia was horrible before they kicked their best QB (Peter Lalich) out of school...now they are worse. Duke is still less talented than most ACC teams, but they are well-coached now, and coaching makes a lot of difference.

MARYLAND AT CLEMSON

Maryland has looked better than expected the last couple of weeks. However, I'm not sure they are ready to go into Death Valley and beat the Tigers. I want the Terps to win, but I just don't think it's likely. A Maryland win would help NC State, since NCSU has already lost to Clemson. In order for State to finish ahead of Clemson in the standings, NCSU would have to finish the conference season a game ahead of Clemson. Technically, the Wolfpack can still have a tiebreaker advantage over the other teams in their division. Go Terps!

NONCONFERENCE GAMES NOT INVOLVING NC STATE

I really believe that all of the ACC teams will win their matchups this weekend. Wake Forest and Boston College should win handily. Virginia Tech could struggle with Nebraska, but I think the Hokies can pull out the victory. With FSU, there's really no way of knowing what will happen. They could win by 20, they could lose by 25. Much like UNC, Florida State's fortunes will depend on the performance at quarterback. I'm picking the 'Noles simply because they are in the ACC, and the conference needs the win.

SOUTH FLORIDA AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE

On paper, this game shouldn't be close. USF is ranked 13th (or 14th, depending on which poll you prefer), and NC State is unranked. NC State is going to be without its best defender, Nate Irving. Starting QB Russell Wilson is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed injury.

There's been a little smack talk between the coaching staffs this week, as well. Coaches from across the country traveled to USF this summer to learn the "secrets" of defending the spread option. The Bulls shut down West Virginia last year, so everyone wanted to learn how. When asked about that, Tom O'Brien reminded everyone about USF's bowl game (a shellacking at the hands of Oregon, which runs the spread option), and said "If they're the gurus, we'll just go somewhere else."

This irked USF defensive coordinator Wally Burnham, so he fired back about how USF's coaches were "classy", then reminded everyone that NCSU didn't go to a bowl last year. You stay classy, Wally.

Anyway, I think the over/under for this game is 1.5. If Harrison Beck, who is scheduled to start in place of Wilson at QB, throws two or more interceptions, State loses. If not, State wins. NC State has played well enough of late to win games if they protect the ball. They have not played well enough to overcome lots of turnovers. Especially interceptions, because when the Wolfpack gives up an interception it often turns into a touchdown for the opposition.

Actually, the "Beck Factor" may not come into play. There is some internet speculation (and we all know how trustworthy that is) that Wilson will in fact play Saturday night. He was listed as "out" on Monday, but on Thursday's report was listed as "doubtful". If his injury is to his throwing shoulder (as reported by WRAL in Raleigh), then it may depend on how it feels when he wakes up Saturday.

Either way, I'm predicting an NC State victory. I foresee a hard-fought game that the Wolfpack finds a way to win in the fourth quarter. NC State goes into their conference schedule with back-to-back wins over Top 15 opponents.

Wow...

I haven't posted anything since August 25. At that time, I was quite excited by the fact the Russell Wilson was taking over as quarterback at NC State. I announced it by saying "Hello Mr. Wilson!" in the post just below this one.

As I write this, NCSU sits at 1-2. They have sandwiched losses to South Carolina (34-0) and Clemson (27-9) around a relatively lackluster victory over William and Mary. The defense has actually looked pretty good, and has been getting the turnovers that defensive coordinator Mike Archer and head coach Tom O'Brien talked about last year and over the summer. The problem has been that the offense has been inefficient.

That's really the nicest thing I can say about the offense.

Some of the ineptitude of the offense I attribute to Russell Wilson getting knocked out (literally) during the South Carolina game. The team had seemingly found a groove, and was moving the ball down the field, when Wilson got his bell rung. Daniel Evans entered, and you could literally hear the air come out of NC State's sails. Before you knew it, a 0-0 defensive struggle was a 34-0 blowout.

After missing the William and Mary game, Wilson played OK against Clemson. He didn't light the world on fire, but he did show an ability to avoid "big negative" plays. He may actually be too quick to throw the ball away. But, he is a redshirt freshman...I expect that as the season progresses he will learn when to challenge defenders and when to throw the ball away. Right now, he's a little timid about throwing the ball to receivers who aren't wide open.

So, going into this week, here's the story: NC State, decimated by injury, is getting ready to host the 15th-ranked team in the country. They are down to the 3rd string TE, have no receivers who made any significant contributions last year, have two converted defensive linemen starting on the offensive line, have lots of freshman and sophomores in the two-deep, and their quarterback is a RS-Fr. who has already been knocked cold this season. Recipe for disaster, right?

WRONG!!

That 15th-ranked team is from Greenville, NC. The East Carolina Pirates.

NC State's "get right" opponent.

Remember last year? 1-5 NC State went to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium and thumped the Pirates.

This year, ECU is riding high. Their fans are talking about going undefeated and making the a BCS bowl. Tickets for the game are selling on the "black market" for ridiculous prices. The Pirates and their fans are hyped and ready to come to Raleigh. They have something in store for the Wolfpack.

Whatever. I do not and will not believe it until I see it.

I think that the ECU team that played Tulane is much closer to the real thing than the team that beat West Virginia. I don't think the Virginia Tech victory means much, because Virginia Tech with Sean Glennon at QB is not much better (if any) than NCSU on offense. I think that Russell Wilson will be much more comfortable this week, and will begin to put things together. The Wolfpack offense doesn't necessarily need to score a ton of points. They just need to string together a few first downs, so that the defense can stay off the field for a while. I think that happens this week.

I don't care who they have beaten. I don't care where they are ranked. They are still East Carolina.

North Carolina State will win the game.